How Pumpkin Spice Went from Unbeatable LTO to Thanksgiving Turkey

For months now, endcaps across retail have been stocked with pumpkin spice candles, cookies and protein bars. The leaves still hadn’t begun turning when it began; school hadn’t even started. But pumpkin spice season had arrived again, and even earlier than last year.

It wasn't always this way.

When Starbucks introduced the Pumpkin Spice Latte in 2003, it was a Thanksgiving treat that only ran from mid-October through early December. It harnessed powerful behavioral triggers: scarcity (limited time), anticipation (worth the wait) and temporal relevance (perfectly aligned with the season). It stood out as a special, utterly unmissable harbinger of fall.

Then other brands, eager to capitalize on the flavor’s seemingly irresistible appeal, started launching LTOs of their own. And earlier, to capture share. Categories from oatmeal to air fresheners jumped in, increasingly signaling autumn to consumers still enjoying August.

Saturation: complete. Seasonal magic? Gone.

Here’s how marketers collectively undermined what once made pumpkin spice work–and how to avoid their mistakes.

Extended Availability Destroys Urgency

Scarcity drives desire. When something is available for a limited time, we want it more, and we act faster because we know the window will close.

When brands launch pumpkin spice “LTOs” early and stay late, they sacrifice the scarcity that made Starbucks’ autumn-only latte irresistible. How can a brand expect consumers to feel urgency when their product will be on the shelf for five months?

The fix is straightforward: respect the calendar.

Run seasonal campaigns when your product aligns with the actual season consumers are experiencing, not to get a jump on competitors or outlast them.

Category Saturation Undermines Premium Positioning

When one brand does something intriguing, as Starbucks did (coffee that tastes like ... pumpkin pie?), it creates curiosity people will pay good money to satisfy. But when every brand offers something everyone else has already explored, it loses that allure.

This creates a positioning problem.

Premium pricing depends on distinctiveness. When pumpkin spice is everywhere—cream cheese, cereal, even dog treats—none of it feels special. Which means none of it feels premium.

Resist broader trends that dominated past earnings reports. The strongest seasonal premiums find angles that fit their category in ways that scream “value.”

Lack of Originality Breeds Indifference

Consistency can build comfort, trust and preference, leading consumers to choose you. But when your seasonal strategy looks identical to everyone else’s, familiarity creates invisibility.

Our brains filter out what’s predictable. When shoppers can’t escape pumpkin spice everything no matter where they roam, it becomes background noise. And at that point, you’re not only running a campaign that can’t stand out. You’re risking existing brand equity by boring consumers who expect you to know them better.

Starbucks’ original offering delighted coffee drinkers because it was an unexpectedly delicious latte. Brands need to ask themselves, “Are we injecting pumpkin spice because it elevates who we are, or because everyone else is doing it?”

Copying the trend sacrifices what makes your brand memorable. Create seasonal LTOs and campaigns that feel authentically yours.

The Bottom Line

The pumpkin spice problem isn't really about flavor. It's about what happens when brands collectively pursue the same strategy without understanding why it worked in the first place.

Scarcity, distinctiveness and creativity aren't optional components of seasonal marketing. They're the all-important mechanisms that drive premiums and create genuine consumer enthusiasm.

The path forward requires discipline:

• Honor real seasonality
• Find distinctive angles that signal value
• Choose creative expressions that reinforce who you are

Otherwise, you're running a strategy that's practically a seasonal punchline.

To explore driving purchase by understanding how consumers actually choose, see Method1's work.